Saturday, January 2, 2010

Open Mind: Exogenous Factors

December 31st, 2009
Apparently Lucia thinks that my “estimation of uncertainty intervals without treating the effect of volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo as exogeneous is very misleading.” I’ve come to expect such foolishness from her; whenever she approaches the trend in temperature data, she reeks of desperation.
But if we do model some of the exogenous factors, we might get smaller uncertainties in our trend estimates. Yay! Let’s give that a try.
Read the rest of the post at the source…

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  1. vsaluki:
    Okay, here is a comment that Tamino refused to post.

    I’m not sure what this is suppose to prove. We know that GISS was divergent before the adjustments, and it is still divergent after the adjustments.

    The adjustments really have very little effect. So the claim by the warmers that the HadCrut3 temperature is flat because of ENSO is false. In any case, our claim regards HadCrut3, RSS and UAH – not the divergent GISS. If you look at HadCrut3, you can see the difference between ENSO adjusted slope and unadjusted slope here:

    As you can see, there is not much difference. Once again, this shows that the flatness is not due to ENSO. In both cases the .22C of temperature increase that one would expect from IPCC predictions is absent.

    Also, for those of you who are willing to check the link in Cthulhu’s comment, it looks to me like the HadCrut3 adjusted data since 1998 is flat there also. Of course that is one of the problems with using very long time periods. The detail gets lost in the scale.

    Take the challenge Tamino. Do the HadCrut3 adjustments. Run if from 1998; because as skeptics we are only claiming that the temperature is flat since then. We know that it rose before then. Then run a trend line through it and see what you get.

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

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