Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Open Mind: Models

January 13th, 2010
Chapter 8 of the IPCC AR4 report lists 23 computer models which contributed to the AR4 assessment. The output of those models is available from Climate Explorer, and for most of the models multiple ensemble member runs are available. Downloading the global average temperate data from the 20C3m (20th-century) and SRES-A1B experiments provides data for 118 runs of those 23 models. This enables us to compare the models’ global average surface temperature, as well as the average of all the model runs, to the observed global temperature according to NASA GISS (using anomalies on a 1980-2000 baseline):

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