Monday, December 28, 2009

RealClimate: Updates to model-data comarisons

December 28th, 2009
It’s worth going back every so often to see how projections made back in the day are shaping up. As we get to the end of another year, we can update all of the graphs of annual means with another single datapoint. Statistically this isn’t hugely important, but people seem interested, so why not?
Read the rest of the post at the source…

RealClimate's Comment Policy
If you've attempted to post a comment at RealClimate under this story, and had it, in your opinion, unreasonably rejected or snipped, please repost it and any additional commentary below in the comments. Please take a look at Guidelines for Comments if you haven’t yet.


  1. Here is a comment that RealClimate wouldn't publish on this thread. It has my response to another poster.

    Alfio: #609
    "rejecting GISS just because you don't like it is not enough, you need some very good reason."

    Right Alfio. And you acepting it because you like it is also not enough. I don't accept it because it diverges significantly from HadCurt3 and from RSS and UAH in the last 12 years. And I don't accept it because Hanson is so political. It's impossible to accept that his feelings are not influencing his work. And I don't accept it because it uses adustment mechanisms that have no correlation to nature - like a hinge date where values before that date are adjusted down and values after that date are adjusted up. I don't accept it because it uses an adjustment system that considers nearby stations in two passes, one is a 500km pass and another a 1000km pass. Depending on which pass a station is caught in you can have a station at 980km get the same weighting as one at 490km. Besides, Phil Jones said that HadCrut3 is better. And he wouldn't lie to us, would he?

    In any case, Alfio, even if you like GISS, don't you want to know what an ENSO adjusted HadCrut3 looks like?

    "Think about it: to contain all the data, your graph needs a vertical scale equal to one century's worth of warming, just to show the last 12 years."

    No Alfio, all I need is a trend line for that twelve years. Doesn't matter what it is relative to. The skeptics statement is that the temperature has been basically flat since 1998. To get away from the arguments about the influence of ENSO we need an ENSO corrected set of data points for those 12 years.

    "The IPCC does not expect any specific amount of warming for just 12 years."

    True, they expect a rate of warming with some variation due to natural variability. But if you don't get the warming and you cannot explain it in terms of natural variability, then you have a huge problem - even for only 12 years. Since none of the factors of natural variability that the IPCC considers as important can explain how the CO2 effect is being overriden, that problem is a deal breaker for AGW.

  2. hermes are stylish in their own sense and are definite to draw shrieks from envious women who would give anything just to hold it. A hermes watch that has been gaining much attention is the Hermes Jewellery .
    daidaihua are better than others. With such a vast selection of lida slimming , supplements and slimming aids all promising to offer you that slimming capsule to your weight woes, it is very hard to distinguish which ones will help you and which ones will hinder you. slimming capsules overshadows its competition by being exactly what lida states. Most importantly of all, the ingredients in lida daidaihua are 100% pure and natural.
    Chanel handbag is the consummate alternative for a young, timeless and modern purse as Chanel is famous for offering the best prime product. These Bulks chanel watches have a trendier look but doubtless can be worn-out with any old-fashioned clothes that will emphatically give more advanced and pusher look.
    While buying Tiffany and co , how can we identify what Tiffany sets are genuine or fake? Here I will introduce five steps for you to refer. Become familiar with the characteristics of authenticity included in every silver sets releases new silver jewelry designs. These Tiffany charms may include modifications of past designs.