It’s worth going back every so often to see how projections made back in the day are shaping up. As we get to the end of another year, we can update all of the graphs of annual means with another single datapoint. Statistically this isn’t hugely important, but people seem interested, so why not?Read the rest of the post at the source…
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ReplyDeleteAlfio: #609
"rejecting GISS just because you don't like it is not enough, you need some very good reason."
Right Alfio. And you acepting it because you like it is also not enough. I don't accept it because it diverges significantly from HadCurt3 and from RSS and UAH in the last 12 years. And I don't accept it because Hanson is so political. It's impossible to accept that his feelings are not influencing his work. And I don't accept it because it uses adustment mechanisms that have no correlation to nature - like a hinge date where values before that date are adjusted down and values after that date are adjusted up. I don't accept it because it uses an adjustment system that considers nearby stations in two passes, one is a 500km pass and another a 1000km pass. Depending on which pass a station is caught in you can have a station at 980km get the same weighting as one at 490km. Besides, Phil Jones said that HadCrut3 is better. And he wouldn't lie to us, would he?
In any case, Alfio, even if you like GISS, don't you want to know what an ENSO adjusted HadCrut3 looks like?
Alfio:
"Think about it: to contain all the data, your graph needs a vertical scale equal to one century's worth of warming, just to show the last 12 years."
No Alfio, all I need is a trend line for that twelve years. Doesn't matter what it is relative to. The skeptics statement is that the temperature has been basically flat since 1998. To get away from the arguments about the influence of ENSO we need an ENSO corrected set of data points for those 12 years.
Alfio:
"The IPCC does not expect any specific amount of warming for just 12 years."
True, they expect a rate of warming with some variation due to natural variability. But if you don't get the warming and you cannot explain it in terms of natural variability, then you have a huge problem - even for only 12 years. Since none of the factors of natural variability that the IPCC considers as important can explain how the CO2 effect is being overriden, that problem is a deal breaker for AGW.
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