Friday, March 5, 2010

Open Mind: Message to Anthony Watts

March 5th, 2010
Anthony:

It has now been independenly confirmed, by multiple persons, that my results regarding the impact of station dropout on global temperature are correct. Your claims, in your document with Joe D’Aleo for the SPPI, are just plain wrong.
Read the rest of the post at the source…

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8 comments:

  1. I posted this at WUWT today -- bet it never sees light there:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/16/spencer-direct-evidence-that-most-u-s-warming-since-1973-could-be-spurious/#comment-345596

    Built into your study are some assumptions that may not track. You assume that any temperature affected by an urban heat island is not an accurate reading. Of course, that's not demonstrated anywhere. Were you to ask me about a research design, I'd suggest that you give serious thought to why actual heating in cities should not be counted as actual heating. If the city thermometers are not weighted to count more than rural and suburban measurements, the skew is nonexistent -- it's accurate readings of temperatures.

    There is an assumption that urban heat islands are not the result of global warming in any fashion. Again, no research to back that up.

    Airports and wild lands: In your discussions of airports, there is an assumption that, since there is concrete at the airports, they must be massive concentrations affected by their own heat islands. Not only is there little if any research to vindicate that view, any careful study of our largest urban airports would suggest a contrary case. The wildlands on the grounds of O'Hare in Chicago, for example, host flocks of ducks and a problematic herd of deer. Most of the airport is uncovered by either concrete or MacAdam -- it's grassland and forest. In an air pollution study, it would be considered a sink of pollutants, and I'll wager it's a sink for heat, too.

    Same with DFW, Austin and Denver, three of our newest and largest airports. For those airports on whose committees I have sat, or where I've had a chance to work with the grounds professionally, most of them would be considered far more rural than urban -- Kansas City International, Wichita, St. Louis, Chicago, Toronto and Montreal, for example. Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky, probably are much cooler than their cities, but the cities themselves may not get much heat island effect due to their small size. Or consider the three airports around Washington, D.C. (Reagan) National is on the Potomac River, bordered by parklands and forested residential areas mostly. Dulles International was a country destination when it opened, and remains a largely rural enclave in a barely suburban setting. Baltimore-Washington International is largely wooded and wild, 20 miles at least from any significant urban concrete.

    Airports want to have buffers between their runways and people, for safety. Better designed airports, like Denver and DFW, have enormous stretches of grassland, and sometimes forest, between the ends of runways and any buildings. Larger buffers are preferred for noise control -- at St. Louis, entire neighborhoods were purchased to get people out from under the noise profile. While airports are generally engines for development of a city, that development need not include massive concrete paving and tall buildings, especially at the airport.

    Were there airport heat islands for our 100 largest urban airports -- or any 100 airports with weather reporting stations -- that would be offset greatly by the 500 or so smaller airports, some of which still have dirt and grass landing strips. (Authorities count more than 19,000 airports in the U.S., of which 382 are "primary" airports, with more than 10,000 passengers a year; 3,364 airports are open to the public, and those would be the most likely candidates to have weather stations.)

    How many principal weather reporting stations are at airports, and which of those would you argue to be heat islands?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Happily, I was wrong. The post did break through at Watts's place. Now, I wonder about the older ones . . .

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi, a few days ago I tried to post this in WUWT's quote of the week article:

    Is this referring to your SPPI sponsored paper Policy Driven Deception? If so, that would be very funny indeed.

    When is the final analysis due that shows that you haven’t falsely accused NOAA of fraud? I’m sure Tamino, Zeke Hausfather, Lucia Liljegren, Ron Broberg, Nick Stokes and various others would love to see it.

    Or is it referring to your Surface Station Project paper, also long awaited, despite your early communicating of the conclusions (no global warming in the US, ergo fraud)? When can we see the results of that analysis? I think professor Menne is eager to see that one too.

    Will you retract your allegations of fraud when both analyses turn out to be wrong (well, one actually already is)?


    It never came through, just like all the other times I've asked Watts if he will retract his allegations of fraud if his (still unpublished) analyses turn out to be wrong.


    If the moderation of WUWT gets covered here as well I'm sure to be posting all my experiences. How about it?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry, I've been unexpectedly away from things for a couple weeks. If anyone has any troubles with moderation at WUWT in the future, please email AIC (aninconvenientcomment at gmail.com - link is also in the sidebar) with a link to the post and I'll put up post here for you to post your comment under.

    Cheers,
    AIC

    ReplyDelete
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